By Peace Udugba
The Archbishop Emeritus of Abuja, John Cardinal Onaiyekan, has warned that voter turnout in Nigeria’s 2027 general elections could decline sharply if citizens believe the outcome is predetermined in favour of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Speaking on Monday during an interview on Frontline, a current affairs programme on Eagle 102.5 FM in Ilese-Ijebu, Ogun State, Onaiyekan said any perception that the APC is guaranteed victory would discourage voter participation and weaken the legitimacy of the government that emerges from the polls.
“My fear is that if it becomes very clear to Nigerians that no matter what happens, the APC will win, then most people won’t even bother to go to the election. And even if the government, the real power wins, it will not bring a real victory actually. And it is not going to be possible to deliver good government,” he said.
The Cardinal stressed that restoring public confidence in the electoral process is critical to strengthening Nigeria’s democracy, insisting that only free, fair and credible elections can produce good governance.
According to him, voter apathy witnessed in recent elections reflects growing public distrust in the electoral system, a challenge he said must be addressed before the 2027 polls.
“Genuine democracy is built on free and fair elections. Any democracy that cannot do free, fair and credible elections cannot produce good governance. Elections have consequences. Bad elections lead to bad governance, and bad governance leads to misery among the people,” he said.
Onaiyekan maintained that Nigeria has yet to conduct a truly free and fair election, arguing that many Nigerians have become disillusioned because they believe their votes do not count.
“I think it is in our interest, and in the interest of the government that has all the powers, to make sure that the trust of the people in the electoral process is restored, so that we can get at least 50 per cent of Nigerians voting. If the electoral field is seen to be fair and equal for everybody, then people will know that their votes will count,” he added.
The cleric explained that unlike military regimes, democratic governments derive their legitimacy from the people and must remain accountable through periodic elections.
“When we were under military rule, we didn’t talk about elections, and the military boys who were ruling us didn’t claim to be ruling in our name. Now we are in a democracy, and the rulers say they are ruling in our name. We can’t keep quiet when people claiming to be working in our name are not.”
Drawing comparisons with established democracies such as the United Kingdom, Onaiyekan said the peaceful alternation of power strengthens democratic institutions and promotes national development.
Responding to remarks that President Bola Tinubu had defended the neutrality of the Independent National Electoral Commission, the Cardinal argued that credible elections depend on more than the electoral umpire alone.
He said the conduct of security agencies during elections also plays a major role in determining the credibility of the process.
“Even if INEC is neutral, the election outcome is also affected by the activities and performance of the security agents who claim to be securing the election, but who often end up intimidating people with sirens all over the place, which doesn’t happen in decent democracies,” he said.
The former Catholic Archbishop of Abuja renewed his call for comprehensive electoral reforms, particularly regarding the appointment of INEC’s leadership.
“We know that the government in power appoints the INEC. We have to figure a way out of that because if the government in power appoints the INEC, then it is difficult to have a fair game, unless you have a very strong chairman of INEC who decides to stand up against all pressures,” he stated.
Speaking on the forthcoming August 15 Osun State governorship election, where he recently led the National Peace Committee in facilitating the signing of a peace accord by participating political parties, Onaiyekan admitted that such agreements have not always prevented electoral violence but described them as important moral commitments.
He noted that the political atmosphere in the state remains tense, with allegations and counter-allegations of intimidation among major contenders, stressing the need for restraint.
“We are only praying and hoping that peace will prevail and that the people will be allowed to vote freely while politicians put aside their ambitions and avoid actions capable of undermining the electoral process,” he said.
