By Peace Udugba -The daily torch media
Nigeria’s private sector rebounded in February, returning to growth after a subdued start to 2026, according to the latest Stanbic IBTC Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®) report.
The headline PMI, compiled by Stanbic IBTC Bank, rose to 53.2 in February from 49.7 in January, signaling a renewed improvement in business conditions. Readings above 50.0 indicate expansion, while those below 50.0 point to contraction.
The recovery was driven largely by a renewed rise in new orders, which fueled a faster increase in overall business activity. Output climbed to 55.8 from 50.2 in January, while new orders improved markedly to 55.5 from 49.9. The wholesale and retail sector, which had dipped in January, returned to expansion, ensuring that all four monitored sectors recorded growth during the month.
Employment levels increased at the fastest pace since October, marking nine consecutive months of job creation. Firms also expanded purchasing activity and inventory holdings in response to stronger demand. However, backlogs of work rose at the sharpest pace since May 2020, with businesses citing delayed client payments, staff shortages, material constraints, and power supply challenges as contributing factors.
Commenting on the report, Muyiwa Oni, Head of Equity Research, West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, attributed the improvement to rising customer demand and competitive product pricing. He noted that the appreciation of the naira — which has traded below ₦1,400 to the US dollar since late January — helped ease inflationary pressures. Purchase costs and output prices increased at their slowest rates in just over six years.
Oni explained that strengthening external accounts, higher offshore foreign exchange inflows, improved remittances, and interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) have supported foreign exchange supply and exchange rate stability. He projected Nigeria’s economy to grow by 3.86 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, with full-year real GDP growth expected at 4.1 percent.
The report also highlighted the Federal Government’s ongoing investments in infrastructure, livestock development, trade facilitation, and efforts to attract investments into oil and gas and manufacturing. Additionally, the operational impact of the Dangote Refinery is expected to create positive linkages across other sectors of the economy.
Although purchase cost inflation eased significantly, some firms reported higher prices for animal feed and raw materials, while staff costs continued to rise due to cost-of-living adjustments. Nevertheless, softer input costs allowed companies to increase output prices at the slowest rate since January 2020.
Looking ahead, businesses expressed cautious optimism about output over the next 12 months, supported by advertising efforts and expansion plans. While sentiment improved in February, it remained relatively moderate.
Overall, the February PMI report signals a solid rebound in private sector activity, reinforcing expectations of stronger economic performance in 2026.
