By Peace Udugba
A Research Professor at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), Olufemi Otubanjo, has expressed concern over Nigeria’s worsening security challenges, warning that the growing internationalisation of terrorism across the Sahel region is contributing significantly to the country’s insecurity.
Speaking during an interview on Frontline, a current affairs programme on Eagle 102.5 FM on Thursday, Otubanjo said insurgents and armed criminals displaced from conflict-ridden countries are increasingly infiltrating Nigeria.
According to him, insurgency in Nigeria has evolved beyond the activities of Boko Haram and has become part of a broader regional security threat involving armed groups operating across national borders.
“The problem is that insurgency has become so international. It used to be Boko Haram alone, but it looks like insurgents are running away from different parts of the world, including Sudan. We are beginning to see Sudanese in Nigeria as bandits, coming to kidnap us,” he said.
The international relations scholar noted that some insurgents fleeing conflicts in other African countries are exploiting Nigeria’s vast territory and weak governance presence in certain areas to establish criminal operations.
He explained that communities with limited government presence often become vulnerable to attacks by criminal groups, who can infiltrate such areas, launch operations and retreat before security agencies respond effectively.
“There are many places that have no presence of government. So, everybody can walk in and take over for a couple of times. And then, of course, at the end of the day, if government intervenes, those people will run away,” he said.
Otubanjo also linked rising instability across the Sahel to the effects of climate change, citing desertification, environmental degradation and the loss of livelihoods as major drivers of migration and insecurity.
“We don’t know how much climate change is creating havoc in terms of population and livelihood. A lot of people have lost their homes and jobs because sand dunes have taken over their villages and communities. They are taking over their farms, and they are moving down,” he said.
He added that many migrants moving southward are not terrorists but economic migrants fleeing poverty, unemployment and insecurity.
“A lot of the northerners that we see in Lagos and think may be terrorists are actually economic migrants. They are running away from hopelessness and joblessness in the North because there is no new investment,” he said.
Despite the persistent security challenges, the professor argued that it would be unfair to suggest that the Federal Government and security agencies are inactive.
“There is a challenge of security in Nigeria, no doubt about it. We have not overcome it, but that is not to say that government is not doing what is necessary,” he stated.
Otubanjo stressed that combating terrorism and banditry requires patience, sustained military operations, intelligence gathering and regional cooperation rather than expectations of immediate results.
“The government cannot tell you every day that we killed two or three people today and that we are ending insurgency tomorrow. It doesn’t happen like that. It’s a process,” he said.
He also paid tribute to members of the armed forces, noting that many soldiers continue to make sacrifices, including paying the ultimate price, in the fight against terrorism.
“In summary, I’m not so sure I can vouch for President Tinubu’s record on terrorism, but they are not sitting idle. They are working. Soldiers are dying, and we must give them credit and pray that they will do better and get us out of this mess,” he added.
Responding to claims that strained relations between Nigeria and some military-led governments in the Sahel have worsened insecurity, Otubanjo dismissed the assertion, noting that countries such as Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso are themselves battling insurgencies.
“Niger has its own insurgency on almost three fronts. Mali is fighting, and Burkina Faso has its own challenges. These are all countries confronting insurgency,” he said.
He added that regional governments continue to collaborate through multinational security arrangements aimed at tackling terrorism across the Sahel.
“We have a multinational joint task force that is supposed to cooperate among countries in the Sahel to fight insurgency, and it is working,” he said.
Nigeria Enjoys Strong Global Relations
Assessing Nigeria’s foreign policy outlook, Otubanjo described the country’s diplomatic standing as one of its strongest assets, noting that Nigeria maintains cordial relations with countries across major geopolitical blocs despite increasing global tensions.
“But in terms of overall foreign policy, we have peaceful relations with almost everyone. Nigeria is one of the greatest countries in the world in terms of having no enemies,” he said.
He argued that disagreements among nations should not be mistaken for hostility, particularly in relations involving major global powers such as the United States, Russia and China.
According to him, Nigeria’s relationship with the United States remains fundamentally friendly, despite occasional diplomatic differences.
“There’s no enemy-state conflict. The United States is our friend. Even between husbands and wives, there is a quarrel once in a while. It doesn’t mean they are enemies,” he said.
