By The Daily Torch Media
The Convener of the League of Northern Democrats and a key promoter of the All-Democratic Alliance (ADA), Dr Umar Ardo, has predicted that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu could secure less than 10 per cent of votes from Northern Nigeria in the 2027 presidential election if the poll is free, fair and credible.
Ardo made the prediction during an exclusive interview on Frontline, a current affairs programme on Eagle 102.5 FM, Ilese-Ijebu, Ogun State.
He said Tinubu’s electoral prospects in the North would largely depend on how voters assess the performance of his administration, particularly on insecurity, economic hardship, poverty and the rising cost of living.
According to him, insecurity remains one of the major concerns confronting Northern communities, with insurgency and other security challenges continuing to affect farmers, traders, businesses and residents.
Ardo argued that the security crisis could be significantly reduced if the Federal Government adopts what he described as the right strategy and demonstrates sufficient political will.
“You can solve the issue of insecurity and insurgency in one year,” he said.
He stressed that insecurity goes beyond the loss of lives and property, noting that economic activities are also affected when citizens cannot operate safely.
Ardo Criticises Tinubu’s Economic Reforms
The political commentator also criticised some of the economic policies of the Tinubu administration, particularly the removal of fuel subsidy.
Questioning whether ordinary Nigerians have benefited from the policy, Ardo said, “Subsidy removal, is it a benefit?”
He argued that the reforms had weakened Nigerians’ purchasing power despite salary increases enjoyed by some workers.
“The purchasing power has been depreciated,” he said.
Ardo further claimed that the economic hardship had made it increasingly difficult for Nigerians to afford basic necessities, arguing that the impact was particularly severe in Northern Nigeria because of the region’s large population of economically vulnerable citizens.
“The economic reform has pushed from the state of poverty to destitution,” he said.
Northern Representation
Ardo also raised concerns about political representation under the Tinubu administration, arguing that the composition of government could influence how citizens perceive the administration’s commitment to different regions.
He said representation should be considered alongside broader governance issues and the actual impact of government policies on citizens.
According to him, the 2027 presidential election would give Northern voters an opportunity to assess the Tinubu administration based on their experiences since the President assumed office in May 2023.
He cautioned against assuming that the North’s voting pattern in 2023 would automatically be repeated in 2027.
Instead, he said, prevailing economic and security conditions would be important factors in determining how Northern voters cast their ballots.
Tinubu’s Northern Support
Against this backdrop, Ardo gave his assessment of Tinubu’s chances in the region if the 2027 election meets the standard of a free, fair and credible poll.
“If a free, fair and credible election is conducted in Nigeria, Tinubu can’t get 10 percent of the Northern part,” he said.
The claim, if sustained, would have significant implications for the 2027 presidential contest, given the North’s importance to Nigeria’s electoral calculations.
It could also intensify attention on opposition parties and political figures seeking to attract voters across the region.
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who is associated with the African Democratic Congress (ADC), has a longstanding political base in parts of the North, while Rabiu Kwankwaso remains influential in Kano and other parts of the North-West.
The extent to which opposition figures can translate such regional influence into votes, however, will depend on their political alliances, candidate selection, campaign strategies and the issues that dominate the 2027 election.
For Tinubu, Ardo’s prediction highlights the potential importance of security, economic conditions and regional representation in determining the President’s chances of retaining support in Northern Nigeria.
